Forever Almost Here
“Science has not yet mastered prophecy,” Neil Armstrong (the first man on the moon) once said. “We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next ten.” Indeed, some technologies exist in a tantalizing but perpetual “almost there”, always just a few years away. Consider the examples below, then discuss with your team: why are these technologies stuck in the near future, and which one would you be most excited to see in action?
- fusion power | cure for cancer | graphene | flying cars | virtual reality
- nanotechnology | space elevator | food pills | artificial general intelligence
The flying car has been just around the corner for eighty years — promised on magazine covers in the 1950s, at every World's Fair, and by start-ups today. Some technologies seem to hover permanently 'almost there': brilliant in the prototype, dazzling in the demo, yet never quite landing in ordinary life.
Key concepts
- The Hype Cycle
- A technology rockets up on inflated expectations, crashes when it can't deliver fast, then (if ever) matures into real use — why something feels overhyped and underwhelming at once.
- Science Versus Engineering
- Knowing something is possible isn't making it cheap, safe, and scalable — fusion and the space elevator are stuck not on physics but on the gap between 'works once' and 'works everywhere, affordably.'
- The Valley Of Death
- The deadly stretch between a promising lab prototype and a marketable product, where funding dries up and most technologies quietly die.
- Amara's Law
- Futurist Roy Amara's rule that we overestimate a technology's impact in the short run and underestimate it in the long run — almost exactly Armstrong's quip.
What to know
-
01
These technologies stall for different reasons, not one — fusion and the space elevator on engineering, a 'cure for cancer' on a mis-framed target, food pills on plain biology — so a sharp answer names which wall each one hits.
Keep reading the full lesson
The rest of this lesson — every key insight, the cross-subject connection, the Are We There Yet? theme tie-in, and practice questions — comes with full access.
Unlock full access →$9.99/month, or $29.99 for the whole season — see plans.
New here? Create a free account to read the free section first.