Predicting Ten Years Out
With apologies to Mr. Armstrong, sometimes people also predict too much for the next ten. Consider these predictions for the year 2028, made in 2018. Are there any that haven’t come true yet but that you think still might in the next two years?
In 2018, a venture capitalist rattled off bold predictions for 2028 — that a tenth of people would be 'addicted to VR,' that a new gadget would dethrone the smartphone — riffing on Bill Gates's line that we overestimate the next two years and underestimate the next ten. From where we sit now, some of those calls look sharp and some look like they're still 'almost.'
Key concepts
- The Gates/amara Pattern
- We overestimate change over two years and underestimate it over ten — why a 2018 prediction can look wrong in 2020 and prescient by 2028; the timeline, not the idea, is usually off.
- Exponential Versus Linear Thinking
- Humans expect change to add up steadily, but technology often compounds — we misjudge compounding curves, so ten-year forecasts swing between laughably early and stunningly late.
- Form Factor
- The physical shape and interface of a device — many 2018 predictions hinged on a new form factor (glasses, earbuds) replacing the phone, so judging them asks 'did the shape catch on?', not just 'did the tech arrive?'
- Calibration
- Checking your confidence against reality over time — scoring old predictions as hit, pending, or miss is exactly how forecasters get better.
What to know
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01
A prediction can be directionally right and badly mistimed — the Gates pattern means 2018's bold 2028 calls were likely too eager early and may still land late, so 'hasn't happened yet' isn't 'wrong.'
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